# Flights Delay Prediction

You must have faced flight delays ever in your life if you are a frequent flight traveller. This might have caused you a lot of trouble, especially when you are running on a tight or busy schedule.
To address the same problem my team - [Aryan Bakle](https://www.calmcanfly.com/), [Aryan Saxena](mailto:saxena.a@icloud.com) and [me](https://www.lakshaykumar.tech/) have prepared this project for prediction of flight delays on **India's Busiest air Route: DEL to BOM**

We started off with some research. We observed that on this route 5 major airlines - SpiceJet, Vistara, Indigo, Go First and AirIndia are operating approx. 36 flights daily.
Data Source - [SkyScanner](https://www.skyscanner.co.in/)

Using Selenium and Python we scraped the data for all the flights and their delay history for the past 100 days. Source : [FlightRadar24](https://www.flightradar24.com/22.73,75.8/17)
The above method gave us very [raw data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UmHkMcir-to_cZgy_ne49deK2KojwjytXWwTcSGYs7Q/edit?usp=sharing) with tones of missing values and non-segregated data.

![image.png](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1664605639670/aNjuyOjmj.png align="left")

After cleaning manually, here is what we came up with - 

[Cleaned data -](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DjyhyKEqXRcgd_XmmgDM4ZFaCDbLDF1BzZwq-YsTW6o/edit?usp=sharing) 
![image.png](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1664605788421/LmFDCeiTX.png align="left")

After doing some basic measures of central tendency, here's what we came up with -

- On average, 20% of total flights were delayed with an average delay time of 27 minutes. (not much)
- The maximum delay was 327 minutes ~ 5 hours for Flight number SG8169 (SpiceJet)
- From the past data, we saw that the maximum flights were delayed on Thursdays and Fridays. Maybe because people travel more on weekends than weekdays, flights were less booked.


![image.png](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1664606568440/rK6HK3nKY.png align="left")

Probability Distribution for flights delay

![image.png](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1664607329772/zXSQWcjdY.png align="left")

We segregated the cleaned sheet into multiple sheets, specific for each airline and flight number. We got a total of **53 individual excel sheets for analysis**. [Cheers to our team]

Later we tried Logistic regression on our dataset to check if a flight (based on the number and past history) is delayed or not. Here's the confusion Matrix of our model

![image.png](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1664606658349/TKzrwTIcj.png align="left")

We see that there were no predicted true values. This might be because we did the analysis on past data i.e. identifying patterns, not the actual factors causing flight delays i.e. weather conditions, delays due to passenger's arrival time, technical issues, airline's carelessness etc. Our **logistic regression model score was 0.7747** which I think is quite enough. Here's our google colab sheet - 
%[https://colab.research.google.com/drive/17eTmUZG65MuoLQkz8Jq3B5W-DaQCRGd4?usp=sharing]

In the end, we created a dashboard in google sheet where based on flight and airline history, The system was able to display the probability of that particular flight being delayed more than a threshold time input by the user.
For example - Analysis for **Go-First Flight No. G8336**

![image.png](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1664607502474/lgywFBwD5.png align="left")

We will get all the analysis of airline and flight numbers. In this picture, the Probability of this flight for 30 minutes delay is 58.33% on Friday.

Thanks to our mentors [Saurabh Mahajan](https://www.linkedin.com/in/saurabh-mahajan-b6583315/), [Mathew George](https://www.linkedin.com/in/mathew-george-826a8186) and [Vishrut Patel](https://www.linkedin.com/in/vishrut-y-patel/) from [Atria University](https://www.atriauniversity.edu.in) for their guidance throughout the project.

Do let me know in the comments for the scope of further improvements.